The hottest plastic peak season is coming, demand

2022-08-17
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Since September, the peak season of plastic consumption has come, and the sharp rise in demand for agricultural plastics has led to a continuous increase in the operating rate of downstream agricultural films. This trend will continue until the end of October or the beginning of November. At this stage, the demand for plastics will be significantly improved

the centralized maintenance of units in the second quarter has made the petrochemical inventory digest rapidly and has been maintained at a low level recently. Then in the peak consumption season, the petrochemical inventory is difficult to accumulate, and there is even the possibility of further destocking. Therefore, the current situation of low inventory is difficult to change in the short term, which will strongly support the plastic price

however, the plastic output has returned to a high level, and the profit is rich. The supporting device operates at a high load. It is expected that the plastic output will be at a high level in the third and fourth quarters. In terms of import, due to considerable trade profits, there is also the possibility of a substantial increase in import volume. Once the source of imported goods flows in, domestic inventory will accumulate rapidly, posing downward pressure on prices

with the peak season approaching, the demand has improved

generally, may is the lightest period of agricultural film production, and the operating rate of the device is the lowest level in the year. Since June and July, the operating rate of the device has bottomed out and began to increase continuously until it reached the highest level in the year in early November. As downstream enterprises need to purchase raw materials in advance, the plastic demand gradually entered the peak consumption season in September and continued to October, while the corresponding may was the weakest period of plastic demand. Although the seasonal regularity of packaging film is not as significant as that of agricultural film, it is also a process of gradual improvement in the third and fourth quarters

in the second quarter, the devices were dense and less affected by the constant extension stress (generally neglected) for maintenance, and the operating rate of PE devices fell to about 70% at the lowest. Therefore, although it was in the off-season of consumption at that time, the supply contraction made the third stage 2026 (2) the petrochemical inventory fell rapidly in 030. Since late July, with the restart of the early maintenance device, the supply has gradually increased, while the market demand is still weak, and the petrochemical inventory has accumulated slightly, but it is still at a low level, which is significantly lower than the level of the same period in previous years, which is also the main reason for the sharp rise in the early stage of plastics. Then, entering the peak consumption season, the improvement of demand will help to maintain Petrochemical inventory at a low level. Affected by environmental protection this year, the demand in peak season is relatively slow to start, but the agricultural film production has a certain rigid demand nature, and the demand for raw materials will still gradually increase

rich profits may highlight the supply pressure

at present, the overall crude oil is still in the low-level oscillation stage, and the cost of oil-based olefins is low. Since June, the price of plastics has risen sharply, and the production profit of oil-based plastics is considerable, with an average profit of more than 3000 yuan/ton in August

although the production cost of coal to olefins has increased significantly due to the rise in coal prices, the strong strength of polyolefins makes the production profit of coal to olefins still rich, with an average profit of more than 3600 yuan/ton in August

pe enterprises are fully motivated to produce under the stimulation of high profits. Recently, the overall operating rate of PE has been maintained at more than 90%, and some originally planned maintenance devices have also been delayed. It is expected that the PE output in the third quarter will increase by 7% compared with that in the second quarter, while LLDPE will be 11%. PE overhaul is less in the fourth quarter, and Shenhua Ningmei coal is put into production, so the output of PE and LLDPE will remain high

in terms of import, first of all, according to the seasonal law, the import volume in the third quarter will generally increase significantly month on month due to the arrival of the peak consumption season. Secondly, domestic demand increased to 260.991 billion yen. LLDPE imports have begun to make profits since June, and the recent profits have remained high, so high profits will inevitably lead to an increase in imports, which is very similar to the situation in the fourth quarter of last year. If a large number of imported goods flow in, the plastic price is bound to fall under pressure, but the current number of exports from the United States to China affected by the hurricane is limited

operation strategy

short term plastic is still supported by the peak season of demand. Bargain hunting and long selling can be considered after the end of the period price adjustment, but at the same time, the long service life is after the peak season, and the supply pressure is prominent. At that time, there may be a large decline in the plastic market, and short selling will be the main operation at that time

in addition, from the perspective of the seasonal law of demand, 1801 is a peak season contract, while 1805 is a low season contract. At the same time, the inventory is low in the short term, and there is an accumulation expectation after the peak season. Therefore, more than 1801 empty 1805 contracts can be involved

risk factors that need to be paid attention to: first, the risk of short-term long, such as false demand in peak seasons and sharp increase in imports. The second is the risk of short selling after the peak season, such as the unexpected shutdown and maintenance of the device, and the output is less than expected

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